Campaigns & Elections
What Pennsylvania polls show heading into Tuesday
Final polls show Shapiro running away in the governor’s race and Oz and Fetterman locked in a dead heat
Democratic candidate for U.S. Senator John Fetterman, former President Barack Obama, Democratic candidate for Governor Josh Shapiro, and President Joe Biden raise their arms when departing after a rally at the Liacouras Center on November 5, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Mark Makela/Getty Images
As this year’s fiercely contested campaigns come to a close and the polls open tomorrow morning, all eyes will be on Pennsylvania to see how the state’s voters decide to tip the scales of power in both Washington, D.C. and Harrisburg.
With U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey’s seat up for grabs and several other congressional contests still up in the air, City & State has your last-minute update on all the odds and polls for the state’s biggest races.
Gubernatorial Race
Attorney General Josh Shapiro (Democrat) vs. State Sen. Doug Mastriano (Republican)
- Shapiro wins 97 in 100 simulations
- Likely Democrat
- Likely Democrat
- Trafalgar Group: Shapiro +4
- Marist College: Shapiro +15
- Emerson College: Shapiro +10
- Susquehanna Polling & Research: Shapiro +14
U.S. Senate Race
Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (Democrat) vs. Dr. Mehmet Oz (Republican)
- Fetterman wins 54 in 100 simulations
- Toss Up
- Toss Up
- Trafalgar Group: Oz +2
- Marist College: Fetterman +6
- Emerson College: Oz +1
- Susquehanna Polling & Research: Oz +1
- Muhlenberg College/The Morning Call: Tied
U.S. House Races
7th Congressional District: U.S. Rep. Susan Wild (Democrat) vs. Lisa Scheller (Republican)
- FiveThirtyEight: Scheller wins 52 in 100 simulations
- Cook Political Report: Democrat Toss Up
- Politico Forecast: Toss Up
- Muhlenberg College/The Morning Call: Wild +1
8th Congressional District: U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright (Democrat) vs. Jim Bognet (Republican)
- Cook Political Report: Democrat Toss Up
- Politico Forecast: Toss Up
- Siena College/The New York Times: Cartwright +6
12th Congressional District: State Rep. Summer Lee (Democrat) vs. Mike Doyle (Republican)
- Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat
- Politico Forecast: Leans Democrat
17th Congressional District: Chris Deluzio (Democrat) vs. Jeremy Shaffer (Republican)
- Cook Political Report: Democrat Toss Up
- Politico Forecast: Toss Up