10 takeaways from AARP’s latest Pennsylvania poll

A new statewide poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania shows Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight lead over GOP presidential nominee and former President Trump, while offering a glimpse into several other races in the commonwealth nearly a month out from November’s pivotal presidential election. 

The survey, commissioned by AARP Pennsylvania and conducted by polling firms Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, was conducted in late September, and offers a look into the issues that are motivating voters in the upcoming election. 

Below, City & State examines 10 major takeaways from the AARP poll and what they could mean for the Nov. 5 election.

Harris has a 2-point lead over Trump

When polling likely voters on the presidential race, the AARP poll found Harris leading Trump 49% to 47%, with 3% of voters undecided on who they would support in the presidential contest. Harris’ lead increased by 1% when removing third-party presidential candidates from the equation, with Harris leading Trump 50% to 47% in that scenario.

Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein is polling at 1% in the AARP poll, and when removed from the equation, Harris gains 1%, bringing her statewide level of support from 49% to 50%. The Green Party was not on the ballot in Pennsylvania’s presidential race in 2020, and it remains to be seen how the party’s performance in 2024 could impact the final results in Pennsylvania. 

Trump holds an 8-point lead with voters over 50

While Trump is polling slightly behind Harris across all age groups, the former president has an advantage when it comes to voters over 50. According to the survey, 52% of likely Pennsylvania voters ages 50 and older support Trump in the presidential race, compared to 44% who said they support Harris. Trump performs particularly well with voters ages 50-64, with the GOP nominee leading Harris by 10 points among that demographic. 

Casey leads McCormick by 4 points in U.S. Senate race

Incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Casey holds a 4-point lead in the race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat, with Casey leading Republican Dave McCormick 49% to 45%. According to the survey, Casey holds a large lead among younger voters, with the Democrat outperforming McCormick among voters ages 18-34 by a 26-point margin. 

McCormick, however, has a 5-point lead among older voters, leading Casey 50% to 45% among voters over the age of 50.

Older women are split on Trump, Harris

While voters over 50 prefer Trump in the AARP poll, women over the age of 50 are split on who they support in the presidential race. According to the survey, 48% of women over 50 support Trump, and 48% also support Harris.

Bob Ward, a partner at Fabrizio Ward, told reports on Tuesday that female voters 50 and older are one of the most competitive demographics in Pennsylvania, according to the survey. “The race among women 50-plus is dead even at 48, and so this is the most closely-contested demographic in Pennsylvania,” he said, noting that Trump holds a sizable lead with men over 50. “Older men are overwhelmingly voting for Trump by 17 points. We'll note that older women are the demographic where personal financial worry is among the highest.”

Harris improves on Biden’s performance in April AARP poll 

AARP’s April poll on the presidential race was markedly different from the poll conducted in September, as President Joe Biden was the presumptive candidate back during the presidential primary cycle. During the time of the April AARP poll, Trump led Biden by 4 points in a head-to-head matchup, and his lead grew to 5 points when factoring in third-party candidates. 

However, with Harris now at the top of the ticket for Democrats, Trump is trailing the Democratic nominee in a tight presidential race, a change that can, at least in part, be attributed to Harris’ gains among women and younger voters. According to the survey, Harris gained 15 points in the 18-49 age group compared to Biden’s standing in April. 

The Democratic nominee also has an advantage when it comes to women, with 57% of women surveyed supporting Harris, compared to 38% for Trump. 

DePasquale leads Sunday in Pennsylvania attorney general race

In Pennsylvania’s race for attorney general, Democratic nominee and former Auditor General Eugene DePasquale holds a narrow lead over Republican nominee and York County District Attorney Dave Sunday. DePasquale leads Sunday 47% to 44%, though 9% of voters surveyed said they were undecided on the AG race. In AARP’s April poll, Sunday led DePasquale 44% to 43%.

Garrity has narrow lead in treasurer race

Pennsylvania’s race for state treasurer appears to be quite competitive, as incumbent Treasurer Stacy Garrity, a Republican, is polling ahead of Democratic nominee Erin McClelland by one percentage point. Garrity is polling at 45%, while 44% of those surveyed support McClelland. Notably, 11% of voters surveyed said they were undecided on the treasurer’s race. 

Immigration is top issue for older voters

Voters over 50 listed immigration and border security as the most important issue that will determine their vote this year, with a total of 37% voters listing it as either their top issue or the second-most important issue in this November’s election. Second was inflation and rising prices, with 29% of those over 50 listing it as their defining issue in this year’s election. 

Social Security is No. 1 issue for Black voters over 50

Among Black voters over the age of 50, the leading issue for the demographic is Social Security, with 32% of respondents listing it as the most important issue that will determine their vote, according to the poll.

Jeff Liszt, a partner at Impact Research, noted that Harris holds a significant lead among Black voters over the age of 50. “It's also notable here that Social Security is the number one issue among Black voters over 50, which is really the core of Kamala Harris' strength,” he said, adding that Harris holds an 80-point lead over Trump when it comes to Black voters over 50. In that demographic, Harris has the support of 88% of voters, compared to Trump, who is polling at 7%.

Voter motivation increases with age

Among those surveyed, 82% of voters rated their motivation to vote at a 10 out of 10. However, that motivation increases for voters over 50, with 91% of voters 50 and older rating their motivation to vote at a 10, compared to 71% of voters 49 and under. 

Bill Johnston-Walsh, the AARP’s Pennsylvania state director, stressed that older voters are a powerful demographic that presidential candidates will need to listen to in order to win in Pennsylvania. “As we all know, Pennsylvania is a pivotal battleground state, and we know that whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency,” he said. “Once again, this election cycle, older Pennsylvanians will play an important role in the outcome, and all candidates should be listening to the thoughts and concerns of the 50-plus in the commonwealth.”