Pennsylvania punches above its weight in the presidential pecking order

Stop us if you’ve heard this before: Pennsylvania will decide the presidential election. 

The Keystone State is living up to its name more than ever in this election cycle as candidates, surrogates and fundraising have flooded into this bellwether state.

Pennsylvania’s mix of urban centers in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh – combined with the suburbs of the Lehigh Valley and rural pockets spanning from north to south in the central part of the commonwealth – creates a perfect mix of voting blocs that many across the country see as an indicator of where voters in similar communities nationwide will vote. Much of the focus among candidates has been in the purple districts around smaller metropolitan areas such as Harrisburg, Allentown, Bethlehem, Erie, Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. 

The state’s significance can be seen in the commonwealth's campaign schedules – where the presidential candidates, their running mates and President Joe Biden have made at least 90 campaign appearances – and counting – in Pennsylvania. 

Here is a look at Pennsylvania’s past and present when it comes to presidential elections – and what pivotal role the commonwealth can play this year: 

PA in the past

Pennsylvania’s prominence in presidential elections has only increased in recent years, even as its number of Electoral College votes has decreased. The commonwealth has continued to lose population and representation at the federal level, going from 23 electoral votes in 1992 to just 19 in 2024. 

However, the state’s importance hasn’t diminished in that time, as Pennsylvania has voted for the winning presidential candidate 66.7% of the time since 2000. Historically, the commonwealth has voted for the winning presidential candidate 77.4% of the time dating back to 1900, according to Ballotpedia. 

The party shifts varied during that time as well. Pennsylvania has voted Democratic 45.2% of the time and Republican 51.6% since 1900. But since 2000, the state has gone Democratic 83.3% of the time compared to voting Republican 16.7% of the time. 

Former President Donald Trump is the most recent outlier in the state, flipping it red in 2016 for the first time in six election cycles – since 1998. President Joe Biden, who was born in Scranton, won the state back for Democrats in 2020, but Trump still won a higher vote percentage in Pennsylvania than he won nationwide. 

PA in the present

Donors and contributions are coming from both inside and outside the state – with record-breaking spending for a U.S. Senate race and a number of close congressional races driving the eye-popping fundraising numbers on both sides of the ticket. 

Just recently, Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has pushed a $370 million ad buy that includes airing ads in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia focused on her economic plan. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, advertising data shows Donald Trump and his allied super PACs — which have been at a spending disadvantage for much of the race — have been pouring cash into Pennsylvania over the past two weeks, surpassing the spending of Harris and her allies. 

Trump won the state in 2016 by about 44,000 votes – less than a percentage point – while Biden won the state in 2020 by about 81,000 votes, roughly 1.2%. Biden won just 13 of the commonwealth’s 67 counties in 2020 – two more than Hillary Clinton in 2016. 

As of Oct. 20, polling shows the two presidential candidates in a virtual tie in the state. According to FiveThirtyEight, polling averages have Harris at 48.1% and Trump at 46.4%, while individual polls show Harris as high as 50% and Trump as high as 51%. 

Both campaigns see the commonwealth as a key to victory – along with Rust Belt and Blue Wall states like Michigan and Wisconsin. Based on current projections, Harris would need Pennsylvania on top of 25 additional electoral votes, which could come from the Rust Belt or Western states like Arizona and Nevada. Trump would need Pennsylvania and 27 more electoral votes, which could come from North Carolina, Georgia or a combination of the other toss-up states.