How Trump took back Pennsylvania

Four years after President Joe Biden took back Pennsylvania after former President Donald Trump flipped the state red in 2016, Trump took back the commonwealth on his way to defeating Vice President Kamala Harris and securing the 2024 presidential election. 

In bellwether counties like Bucks, Lackawanna, Northampton and more, Trump either improved upon his 2020 margins or took enough away from the coalition of voters Biden relied on in 2020 to overcome the increased Democratic turnout in cities like Philadelphia. 

Gains among target groups, including suburban women, independents and young voters – demographics that soundly rejected Trump when he was president, helped him expand his base enough to carry Pennsylvania as well as the other swing states needed to get him past 270 electoral votes. According to exit polls and results from the Associated Press, Harris won roughly 54% of the female vote, compared to Biden’s 57% in 2020. Harris also underperformed Biden among suburban women by 2 points and young voters, those 18 to 20 years old, by about 9 points. And, surprisingly, Trump somehow flipped low-income earners in a way Biden was able to in 2020. Among voters that make less than $50,000 a year, Trump won by a margin of 49-48%, the same demographic Biden carried 55-45% in 2020. 

Here is where the margins stand in some notable counties, with updates as of Thursday:

Allegheny

Harris took home roughly 420,000 votes compared to Trump’s 280,000 in Pittsburgh and the surrounding area – good for a 59.4-39.6 advantage. Four years ago, though, Biden carried the county by 20.4% – the widest margin by any nominee that had won the county since 1992. 

The slight drop in the urban, suburban and exurban areas in the western part of the state were an early warning sign of Harris’ inability to connect with voters the same way Biden had during the last presidential election cycle. 

Berks

Trump improved upon his 2020 numbers in Berks County, an area he won by a 53-45 margin four years ago. This time around, Trump boosted his advantage by 3 percentage points, holding a 55-43 lead over Harris as of Wednesday morning. 

Bucks

There was never going to be a Democratic victory in Pennsylvania without a win in Bucks County. An aggressive voter registration effort this year erased Democrats’ partisan advantage in the country, and in turn, Trump won the county by a slim 49.58 to 49.45% – a roughly 500-vote margin. 

Centre

Update: Harris overtook Trump in Centre County Thursday as officials resolved software issues and more ballots were tallied. Harris took the county by less than 2,000 votes, coming away with a 50.59 to 48.36% margin. 

Trump also flipped Centre County, home to Penn State University and a lot of young voters. In 2020, Biden carried the area with 40,000 votes compared to Trump’s 36,000 – nearly a five-point margin. In 2024, Trump surpassed the percentage of votes Biden got in 2020, taking home 34,000 votes compared to Harris’ 31,000 – a 51.5 to 47.4% margin. 

Erie

The other big bellwether in this race was Erie County – another area that voted for Obama, Trump and then Biden. Trump has currently outpaced Biden’s margins in the county, one the current president narrowly won 49.66-48.63%. Thus far, Trump has maintained more than half of the county, a 3,000-vote advantage that puts him at 50.26% to Harris’ 48.82%. 

Lackawanna

Harris was able to hold on to Lackawanna County – home of Biden’s birthplace in Scranton – but not like Biden did four years ago. Biden took home more than 53% of the vote in the county in 2020; Harris won by a slightly smaller margin of 51-48%. This drop in the Northeast was yet another sign of the Harris campaign’s inability to connect with working-class voters in predominantly white areas like the Biden campaign did. 

Luzerne

Trump improved on his 2020 margins to take Luzerne County by nearly 4 more points than he did four years ago. The former president won Luzerne County by a roughly 60-40% margin. 

Northampton

The last, but arguably most important, bellwether county is Northampton in the Lehigh Valley. Similar to Erie, Northampton County is a “boomerang” district – one that voted for Obama twice, Trump and then Biden. And like Erie, Northampton quickly showed where the commonwealth of Pennsylvania was headed. Biden narrowly won the area in 2020 by less than 2,000 votes – a 49.6-48.9% margin. But this time around, Trump got the majority of votes and holds a lead of less than 4,000 votes, a 50.6-48.4% split.  

Results are unofficial and still being tabulated. To see the most up-to-date tabulations for each county in Pennsylvania, click here to go to the Department of State’s official results page.