Automatic recount ordered in razor-thin U.S. Senate race as McCormick lead shrinks

As of Wednesday, Nov. 13, Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race had maybe been decided – depending on who you ask. 

The Associated Press called the race for Republican challenger Dave McCormick last Thursday, with 97% of the vote in and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey’s team stating they still had a “narrow path to victory” given the outstanding ballots. But Wednesday afternoon, the race remained within the legal mandate of half a percent margin, triggering an automatic recount.  

As of Wednesday, McCormick held a 0.43% lead over Casey – just under 30,000 votes. The Department of State said there are an estimated 60,366 uncounted provisional ballots, and 20,155 uncounted mail-in ballots and absentee ballots. 

Casey’s team and Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt have affirmed that all votes must be counted, and Casey’s team hopes the margins will change with the remaining ballots. 

“My priority has always been standing up for the people of Pennsylvania. Across our Commonwealth, close to 7 million people cast their votes in a free and fair election,” Casey said in a statement Tuesday. “Our county election officials will finish counting those votes, just like they do in every election. The American democratic process was born in Pennsylvania and that process will play out.” 

Meanwhile, McCormick has declared victory and said the remaining votes shouldn’t sway the outcome. 

"Senator-Elect McCormick’s lead is insurmountable, which the AP made clear in calling the race,” Elizabeth Gregory, McCormick’s communications director, said in a statement Wednesday. “A recount will be a waste of time and taxpayer money, but it is Senator Casey’s prerogative. Senator-Elect McCormick knows what it’s like to lose an election and is sure Senator Casey will eventually reach the right conclusion."

Despite Casey’s statement, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer extended Senate orientation invitations to McCormick and Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego after previously withholding them while their respective races remained unsettled, according to Politico.

According to Pennsylvania statute, the secretary of the commonwealth must order a recount for any statewide race in which the candidate was defeated by one-half of a percent or less of the votes cast for the office. 

The recount must be ordered no later than 5 p.m. on the second Thursday following the day of the election – Nov. 14.

The report must include an accurate accounting of all uncounted provisional ballots, uncounted absentee ballots, uncounted mail-in ballots, uncounted alternative ballots, and any other types of uncounted ballots – including any ballots from military and overseas civilian voters that have not yet been canvassed – for which a final resolution regarding the validity of the ballots has not yet been made.

Should Schmidt determine a recount is required, it will be scheduled to start no later than Wednesday, Nov. 20. The recount must be completed by noon on Tuesday, Nov. 26. The Department of State estimates that the recount – the eighth automatic recount in the state since 2004 – will cost taxpayers $1 million, as did the 2022 primary recount between McCormick and Mehmet Oz. In all four previous cases, as well as the 2022 Senate primary, the initial outcome was confirmed.